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Australian Visa Refusal Statistics 2026: What the Latest Data Shows
The Department of Home Affairs reported an overall refusal rate of around 7.3% across temporary and permanent visa applications in 2024–25. That figure is useful for understanding system-wide trends, but it is not the refusal probability for any individual visa subclass or applicant.
Australian visa applications and refusals — latest broad data
Measure | 2024–25 figure | Interpretation |
Temporary and permanent visa applications lodged | Over 9.482 million | Across a very broad range of visa programs |
Applications finalised | Nearly 9.453 million | Not necessarily the same applications lodged during the year |
Overall refusal rate | About 7.3% | Aggregate rate, not a subclass-specific probability |
Why the 7.3% figure must be used carefully
The overall rate combines different temporary and permanent visa programs with very different eligibility criteria, application volumes and integrity risks. A Student, Partner, Visitor, employer-sponsored or skilled visa can have a materially different decision profile from the whole system.
It is therefore misleading to tell a person that they have a 92.7% chance of success simply because the aggregate refusal rate is 7.3%. Individual prospects depend on the statutory criteria, evidence, factual circumstances, integrity issues and the quality of the application.
What Home Affairs says about the refusal rate
The Department attributes the reported refusal rate to the quality of applications received and maturing risk and integrity capability that helps decision-makers identify applicants who may be seeking to exploit visa programs.
How refusal statistics should be analysed
The most useful refusal analysis separates data by visa subclass, stream, applicant location, decision period and, where available, refusal reason. Top10Migration will progressively add those more granular datasets when reliable official data can be sourced.
For the wider population and program context, see Australian Migration Statistics 2026.
For current decision-time indicators, see Australian Visa Processing Times 2026.
This article provides statistical information only and does not predict the outcome of any visa application or provide legal advice.
